President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that proposals for a ceasefire agreement negotiated with American diplomats are poised to be finalised in a matter of days. Following this, American envoys will submit the documentation to the Kremlin.
After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials reported on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Moscow and Kyiv had been resolved. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the war is not guaranteed, particularly because Russia's absence from the ongoing discussions.
Early Tuesday morning, Zelenskyy said that the American legislature was anticipated to consider defense assurances and that a finalised set of agreements might be ready “imminently.” Subsequently, the United States would hold consultations with Moscow, leading to summit-level talks as soon as this coming weekend.
“We are counting on five documents. Several concern security guarantees: formally ratified, that is, voted on and approved by the United States Congress,” the president remarked to journalists. He clarified that these guarantees would “reflect the collective defense clause” of the Nato alliance.
On Monday, American representatives did not provide specific details regarding the probable makeup of the security package or what would happen if Russia sought to capture additional territory after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the United States has no plans to place boots on the ground in Ukraine.
Leaders from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and several additional European nations said in a unified declaration that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in protecting Ukrainian airspace, and in ensuring maritime security, potentially by conducting operations within its territory.”
They stopped short, however, of proposing these actions would constitute assurances equivalent to NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is scant indication that Russia is near accepting the type of package being negotiated between the U.S. and Ukraine.
The following day, the Kremlin said it had not seen the specifics of the plans for security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, declared that the country would not agree to forces of Nato countries operating in Ukrainian territory “under any circumstances.”
The main sticking point between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators remains the territorial question. One proposal centers on Ukraine relinquishing the areas of the Donbas region it still holds, while Ukraine wants to freeze the lines. “We are discussing the land dispute. You know, it is one of the key issues. Currently, there is no consensus on it yet,” Zelenskyy said following the Berlin discussions.
The US negotiation team, headed by two senior advisors, has proposed a compromise solution. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russia would not advance, with the demilitarised area becoming “an open economic area.” Moscow has indicated it could use internal security formations instead of the army in such an area, suggesting it would still expect to maintain authority there.
“I want to stress once again: a ‘special economic zone’ is not under the control of Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise the Donbas region – its currently occupied areas – as Russian. Categorically,” said Zelenskyy.
It is not clear how the two sides will resolve the territorial issue. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement such as a free economic zone could be conceivable if the Ukrainian people voted for it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is expected to arise when the plans are presented to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has given no sign he is prepared to concede on his military objectives.
“If Putin rejects everything, we will end up with precisely the situation we are encountering on our flight right now – turbulence,” said the president, recording the comments as his aircraft departed from Berlin.
“I am confident the United States will increase sanction pressure and provide us with more weapons if he rejects everything. I think, that would be a fair request from us to the Americans,” he concluded.
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